November 16, 2021

COVID-19 Forecasts, Projections, and Impact Assessments – November 2021

The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted five types of assessments for this monthly report: 1) a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective; 2) forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread; 3) forecast models of hospitalizations; 4) forecast model of COVID-19 deaths; and 5) status of COVID-19 vaccinations. All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through Nov. 7.

Summary points are:

  • The models are forecasting a small growth in new daily COVID-19 cases in the state— forecast to increase from 430 cases on Nov. 9 to 546 on Nov. 22.
  • The 15-day models continue to show Arkansans between ages 35 and 59 will have the highest number of COVID-19 diagnoses — forecast to increase by 2,433 cumulative cases by Nov. 22.
  • The highest relative growth in COVID-19 cases will be in children 17 and younger — forecast to increase nearly 2.5% by Nov. 22.
  • The model forecasts a slight decline in new hospitalizations over the next 15 days, dropping by one, from 18 to 17 new daily admissions.
  • Hospitalizations are stabilizing; but, the greatest relative increase in hospitalizations will be in children 17 and younger, increasing by 5.3% by the end of November.
  • The 15-day model is forecasting an average of three deaths per day for the next two weeks.
  • The 15-day model is forecasting 8,612 cumulative COVID-19 deaths by Nov. 22.
  • All counties in Arkansas continue to have low vaccination rates compared to national averages. Most counties increased vaccinations by 2% or less in the past month.

Download the full report.