December 21, 2021

COVID-19 Forecasts, Projections, and Impact Assessments – December 2021

The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted five types of assessments for this monthly report: 1) a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective; 2) forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread; 3) forecast models of hospitalizations; 4) forecast model of COVID-19 deaths; and 5) status of COVID-19 vaccinations. All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through Dec. 12.

Summary points are:
• The models are forecasting an increase in new daily COVID-19 cases in the state — forecast to increase from 766 cases on Dec. 14 to 815 on Dec. 27.
• The 15-day models continue to show Arkansans between ages 35 and 59 will have the highest number of COVID-19 diagnoses — forecast to increase by 4,523 cumulative cases by Dec. 27.
• The highest relative growth in COVID-19 cases will be in children 17 and younger — forecast to increase nearly 3% by Dec. 27, adding 2,673 cumulative cases.
• The model forecasts an increase in daily hospitalizations over the next 15 days, from 39 to 46 new daily admissions.
• The 15-day model is forecasting an average of five COVID-19 deaths per day for the next two weeks.
• All counties in Arkansas continue to have low vaccination rates compared to the national average.

[There will be no video summary recorded and posted this month].

Download the full report.