The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted four types of assessments for this month’s report:
- a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective;
- forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread;
- forecast models of hospitalizations; and
- forecast models of COVID-19 deaths. In this report, we are no longer reporting on immunizations in Arkansas. These data are available from other sources.
All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through Jan. 16.
Summary points are:
- The models are forecasting an increase in new daily COVID-19 cases in the state — forecast to increase from 9,529 cases on Jan. 18 to 22,672 on Feb. 15.
- The 30-day models continue to show Arkansans between ages 35 and 59 will have the highest number of COVID-19 diagnoses — forecast to increase by 150,731 cumulative cases by Feb. 15.
- COVID-19 cases in children 17 and younger are forecast to increase nearly 89% by Feb. 15, adding 112,844 cumulative cases.
- The model forecasts an increase in daily hospitalizations over the next 15 days, from 96 to 180 new admissions per day.
- The 30-day model is forecasting an average of 12 COVID-19 deaths per day for the next two weeks.
The models are showing we should expect COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths to continue to increase through Feb. 15. Models are based on past data and do not account for increases or decreases since the data were pulled on Jan. 17. The Omicron surge is not over.