The College of Public Health will publish periodic briefings designed to update the 15- and 30-day projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths between UAMS COPH COVID-19 Reports. Briefings will be published when cases, hospitalizations, or deaths are rapidly changing in times between the monthly reports.
Data used to prepare this briefing were downloaded Jan. 9 from the Arkansas Department of Health. The report text was finalized and released on Jan. 14, 2022.
The College of Public Health will publish periodic briefings designed to update the 15- and 30-day projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths between UAMS COPH COVID-19 Reports. Briefings will be published when cases, hospitalizations, or deaths are rapidly changing in times between the monthly reports.
Data used to prepare this briefing were downloaded Jan. 2 from the Arkansas Department of Health. The report text was finalized on Jan. 6, and it was posted and released today, Jan. 7, 2022.
The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted five types of assessments for this monthly report: 1) a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective; 2) forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread; 3) forecast models of hospitalizations; 4) forecast model of COVID-19 deaths; and 5) status of COVID-19 vaccinations. All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through Dec. 12.
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The College of Public Health will publish periodic briefings designed to update the 15- and 30-day projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths between UAMS COPH COVID-19 Reports. Briefings will be published when cases, hospitalizations, or deaths are rapidly changing in times between the monthly reports.
Data used to prepare this briefing were downloaded Nov. 28 from the Arkansas Department of Health. The report text was finalized on Dec. 3, and it was posted and released today, Dec. 6.
The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted five types of assessments for this monthly report: 1) a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective; 2) forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread; 3) forecast models of hospitalizations; 4) forecast model of COVID-19 deaths; and 5) status of COVID-19 vaccinations. All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through Nov. 7.
Summary points are:
The College of Public Health will publish periodic briefings designed to update the 15- and 30-day projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths between UAMS COPH COVID-19 Reports. Briefings will be published when cases, hospitalizations, or deaths are rapidly changing in times between the monthly reports.
I started wearing my N95 mask on airplanes in January of 2020. I was watching the news daily and reading about the fast spread of COVID-19 in China and in other countries. Several scientists had predicted that COVID-19 was not going away and that millions of people would die worldwide. It was clear to me in January of 2020 that COVID-19 would spread rapidly in the United States and that we needed to quickly prepare.
I started stocking up on hand sanitizer, disinfectant spray, masks, gloves, bleach, wipes, isopropyl alcohol, hydrogen peroxide, food, water, and whatever I could get. At that time, I had even began preparing my staff and working with them to make sure that we had supplies at work. Early preppers shared stories on what to do. I do not think any thought that we would run out of toilet paper.
In February 2020, I attended my uncle’s funeral and the MidSouth Black Expo, both of which had crowds of people. At the time, the rates were still low in the South. In fact, there were no known cases in Arkansas. I flew to a meeting in New Orleans on March 10th, with great hesitancy. My gut told me not to go. I wore my N95 mask on the plane, and luckily the woman sitting next to me on the plane also had on her mask. We wiped down our seats and others looked at us as if we were crazy.
When I arrived in New Orleans, I learned that Arkansas had identified a possible case of COVID-19. On March 11, Governor Asa Hutchinson declared a public health emergency, formally announcing the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in Arkansas. I flew back to Little Rock two days before the meeting ended because I was eager to get out of New Orleans.
Now, over a year later, I continue to wear my mask in public places even though I have been vaccinated. When health officials were telling people in February and March of 2020 that masks did not protect the general public from the coronavirus, I was shocked. I was shocked that people who understood the spread of infectious disease would tell the public that masks would protect health care workers but not the public. REALLY???? I was also shocked when health officials declared in May of 2021 that vaccinated individuals could take off their mask. At the time, vaccination rates in the U.S. were low and long-term of the effects of the vaccine on variants was still evolving.
I was NOT shocked when COVID-19 rates quickly increase again, hospitalization and ventilation rates increased, and more adults and children began dying. What will it take for us to stop making these mistakes?
I made an informed decision and received a COVID-19 vaccine. I will also continue to wear my mask because masks work and protect adults and children from unnecessary senseless deaths.
Pebbles Fagan, Ph.D., MPH
The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted five types of assessments for this monthly report: 1) a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective; 2) forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread; 3) forecast models of hospitalizations; 4) forecast model of COVID-19 deaths; and 5) status of COVID-19 vaccinations. All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through Oct. 10.
The College of Public Health will publish periodic briefings designed to update the 15- and 30-day projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths between UAMS COPH COVID-19 Reports. Briefings will be published when cases, hospitalizations, or deaths are rapidly changing in times between the monthly reports.
Sept. 27 – Oct. 26
The College of Public Health (COPH) publishes periodic briefings designed to update
COVID-19 forecasts and projects reported in the UAMS COPH COVID-19 Reports.
Data used to prepare this briefing are from the Arkansas Department of Health reported
throughs September 27, 2021.
Key Findings. COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are growing at a slower rate
than in July and August.
As some will recall, we forecast Arkansas would cross the 7,000 COVID-19 deaths on
Aug. 31. The actual number of deaths on that date was 6,934. The models are forecasting the
state will cross the 8,000 deaths threshold around October 9th.
The current pandemic appears to on the downside of an exponential growth curve, and will
likely continue to decline until it finds a steady-state similar to April and May of 2021. The real
question now is: will the pandemic behave in a wave fashion with repeated surges and declines,
with each surge having a smaller crest or simply reach a low point and remain there.
The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted five types of assessments for this monthly report: 1) a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective; 2) forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread; 3) forecast models of hospitalizations; 4) forecast model of COVID-19 deaths; and 5) status of COVID-19 vaccination. All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through Sept. 12.
