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  1. University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences
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News

COVID-19 Forecasts, Projections and Impact Assessments — August 2022

The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health COVID-19 Research Team decided in May, due to a changing COVID-19 pattern, to transition to a new format for the College’s COVID-19 Report. Rather than solely focusing on COVID, the new Public Health Brief will focus on an important public health issue in Arkansas.  The College will, from time-to-time, write a Brief specific to COVID in addition to an update included with the Public Health Brief.

With respect to content, COVID case and death data will not be included in the Brief for the foreseeable future. COVID home-testing has become widespread, and case data, as reported by state health departments, no longer accurately reflect true community spread and resulting forecasts are extremely biased. Deaths due to COVID continue. However, since December/January, the number of COVID deaths in the state have dropped considerably. While this is very good news from a health care and public health perspective, small numbers make forecasting models highly unstable and resulting forecasts unreliable. 

Given these circumstances, this Public Health Brief will focus solely on Arkansas COVID hospitalizations data. Hospitalization data are extremely valid, as events are discreet and counts highly reliable. Low numbers make modeling difficult and subject to unknown bias.  Nevertheless, there are sufficient hospitalization data to allow an assessment of COVID trends in Arkansas.

Data included in this Brief are from the Arkansas Department of Health through July 31, 2022.

Quick Facts:

•             There was an observable increase in cumulative COVID-19 hospitalizations from 37,500 on April 1, 2022 to 39,292 on July 31, 2022.

•             Hospitalization data suggest a mini COVID-19 surge in the state. The current surge may have peaked around July 15.

•             It is difficult to know whether the recent downward trend in Arkansas hospitalizations will continue, or are just a temporary lull. The trend will be more apparent by Aug. 15.

COVID hospitalizations in Arkansas steadily increased after May 4. A clear trend was apparent in the data. Arkansas was experiencing a mini COVID surge. However, around July 15, the pattern changed, suggesting a decline in COVID hospitalizations, as shown in Figure 1.  The reader should keep in mind that hospitalizations lag about two weeks behind cases being reported.  However, there is wide variability in when any one hospital reports their hospitalizations as the numbers decline and the resources devoted to reporting decline as well.

Download the full August COVID-19 report

Filed Under: COVID-19, News

COVID-19 Issue Brief

The College of Public Health will publish periodic briefings designed to update the 15- and 30-day projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths between UAMS COPH COVID-19 Reports. Briefings will be published when cases, hospitalizations, or deaths are rapidly changing in times between the monthly reports.

Data used to prepare this briefing were downloaded Jan. 30 from the Arkansas Department of Health. The report text was finalized and released on Feb. 7, 2022.

Issue Brief #7: Feb. 7, 2022

Filed Under: News

COVID-19 Projections from the College of Public Health for September 2021

COVID-19 Forecasts, Projections, and Impact Assessments

The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted five types of assessments for this monthly report: 1) a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective; 2) forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread; 3) forecast models of hospitalizations; 4) forecast model of COVID-19 deaths; and 5) status of COVID-19 vaccination. All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through Sept. 12.

Complete reportDownload
Sept 2021 Covid Report

Filed Under: COPH News, COVID-19, News

COVID-19 Forecasts for Arkansas from the UAMS College of Public Health

UAMS College of Public Health Dean Mark Williams give an update on the latest COVID-19 forecasts for Arkansas. Watch the video for the week ending August 16, 2021.

Arkansas Covid Report Week of August 23 2021

Read the full report:

UAMS-COPH-COVID-Report-august2021-finalDownload

Filed Under: COPH News, COVID-19, News

COVID-19 Forecasts for Arkansas from the UAMS College of Public Health

UAMS Chancellor Cam Patterson and College of Public Health Dean Mark Williams give an update on the latest COVID-19 forecasts for Arkansas. Watch the video for the week ending July 11.

July 20 2021 Covid Report

Read the full report:

http://publichealth.uams.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2021/07/UAMS-COPH-COVID-Report-july20-21-Final-2.pdf

For questions, contact Ashley McNatt, Communications Specialist for COPH, or the UAMS Office of Communications and Marketing.

Filed Under: COPH News, COVID-19, News

Master the Data: Healthcare Data Analytics Info-Chat

Master the Data


Filed Under: COPH News, News

UAMS Provides Update on COVID-19 Modeling in Arkansas

UAMS Chancellor Cam Patterson and Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health Dean Mark Williams give an update on the latest COVID-19 forecasts for Arkansas. Watch the video for the week ending Feb. 14.

UAMS COVID-19 Report - February 22, 2021

Read the full report:

http://publichealth.uams.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2021/02/UAMS-COPH-COVID-Report-2_19_2021.pdf

For questions, contact Ashley McNatt, Communications Specialist for COPH, or the UAMS Office of Communications and Marketing.

Filed Under: COPH News, COVID-19, News

UAMS College of Public Health Gives Update on COVID-19 Forecasts for Arkansas

UAMS Chancellor Cam Patterson and College of Public Health Dean Mark Williams give an update on the latest COVID-19 forecasts for Arkansas. Watch the video for the week ending Jan. 17.

UAMS COVID-19 Model Update - January 2021

Read the full report:

http://publichealth.uams.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2021/01/UAMS-COPH-COVID-Report-22Jan2021.pdf

For questions, contact Ashley McNatt, Communications Specialist for COPH, or the UAMS Office of Communications and Marketing.

Filed Under: COPH News, COVID-19, News

UAMS College of Public Health Gives Update on COVID-19 Forecasts for Arkansas

UAMS Chancellor Cam Patterson and College of Public Health Dean Mark Williams give an update on the latest COVID-19 forecasts for Arkansas. Watch the video for the week ending Jan. 3.

January 11 Covid Report

Read the full report:

http://publichealth.uams.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2021/01/COPH-COVID-REPORT-8jan2021-4.pdf

For questions, contact Ashley McNatt, Communications Specialist for COPH, or the UAMS Office of Communications and Marketing.

Filed Under: COPH News, COVID-19, News

UAMS Webinars on Proper Ventilation During Covid

A webinar on the role of proper ventilation in protecting employees, customers and businesses during the COVID-19 pandemic was presented Nov. 9, 10 and 12 by the Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health at the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS).

The event was sponsored by Arkansas Blue Cross and Blue Shield, the Arkansas State Chamber of Commerce and UAMS.

Latest research on COVID-19 to inform winterizing our buildings.

Luke Leung PE – LEED Fellow, Skidmore, Owings, & Merrill LLP in Chicago

November 9, 2020

  • What are the positions of the CDC, ASHRAE, and WHO on airborne transmission of COVID-19?
  • What evidence is there the virus can be found in ductwork and HVAC systems?
  • Why is the environment in winter more concerning than in summer?
  • How do we prepare our buildings to minimize infection risk this winter?
Latest research on COVID-19 to inform winterizing our buildings.

Airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2:  Mitigation strategies for buildings.

Elliott Gall, Ph.D. – Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, Portland State University

November 10, 2020

  • Aerosols 101: What size particles are generated by people and how long can they remain in air?
  • How are particles removed from an indoor environment and what strategies exist for reducing particle exposures?
  • Overview of indoor air mitigation strategies: reduced occupancy + distancing, face coverings, ventilation, air-cleaning.
  • Approaches and tools for estimating risk in an indoor space
  • Emergent air-cleaning technologies
Airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2: Mitigation strategies for buildings.

Developing Emotional Resilience:  A New Tool for Workplace Safety & Health

Cynthia Lewis – Principal, Creative Safety Solution; Director, Gulf Coast Safety Institute

November 12

  • Recognize signs and symptoms of work-related stress in yourself and others.
  • Use tools to increase readiness in yourself and others.
  • Use communication strategies to reduce anxiety in tough conversations — wearing a face mask, social distancing, frequent hand washing, etc.
Developing Emotional Resilience: A New Tool for Workplace Safety & Health

Filed Under: COPH News, News

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