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Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health

COVID-19

COVID-19 Forecasts, Projections and Impact Assessments — August 2022

The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health COVID-19 Research Team decided in May, due to a changing COVID-19 pattern, to transition to a new format for the College’s COVID-19 Report. Rather than solely focusing on COVID, the new Public Health Brief will focus on an important public health issue in Arkansas.  The College will, from time-to-time, write a Brief specific to COVID in addition to an update included with the Public Health Brief.

With respect to content, COVID case and death data will not be included in the Brief for the foreseeable future. COVID home-testing has become widespread, and case data, as reported by state health departments, no longer accurately reflect true community spread and resulting forecasts are extremely biased. Deaths due to COVID continue. However, since December/January, the number of COVID deaths in the state have dropped considerably. While this is very good news from a health care and public health perspective, small numbers make forecasting models highly unstable and resulting forecasts unreliable. 

Given these circumstances, this Public Health Brief will focus solely on Arkansas COVID hospitalizations data. Hospitalization data are extremely valid, as events are discreet and counts highly reliable. Low numbers make modeling difficult and subject to unknown bias.  Nevertheless, there are sufficient hospitalization data to allow an assessment of COVID trends in Arkansas.

Data included in this Brief are from the Arkansas Department of Health through July 31, 2022.

Quick Facts:

•             There was an observable increase in cumulative COVID-19 hospitalizations from 37,500 on April 1, 2022 to 39,292 on July 31, 2022.

•             Hospitalization data suggest a mini COVID-19 surge in the state. The current surge may have peaked around July 15.

•             It is difficult to know whether the recent downward trend in Arkansas hospitalizations will continue, or are just a temporary lull. The trend will be more apparent by Aug. 15.

COVID hospitalizations in Arkansas steadily increased after May 4. A clear trend was apparent in the data. Arkansas was experiencing a mini COVID surge. However, around July 15, the pattern changed, suggesting a decline in COVID hospitalizations, as shown in Figure 1.  The reader should keep in mind that hospitalizations lag about two weeks behind cases being reported.  However, there is wide variability in when any one hospital reports their hospitalizations as the numbers decline and the resources devoted to reporting decline as well.

Download the full August COVID-19 report

COVID-19 Forecasts, Projections and Impact Assessments — May 2022

Covid Report for Week of May 30 2022

The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) COVID-19 Research Team has conducted forecasts, projections, and impact assessments, starting as weekly reports in March 2020. We slowly transitioned to monthly reports as the pandemic progressed. This month, we announce the transition to a new bi-monthly Public Health Brief. We present the current status on COVID-19 and long COVID-19 in this report. Subsequent reports will focus on other key public health issues in Arkansas, such as syphilis and Human papillomavirus (HPV). The new briefs will be in partnership with the Arkansas Department of Health, drawing on expert knowledge across a range of public health topics. We will continue to track the COVID-19 pandemic and present quick facts. If a new surge happens, we may produce a supplementary COVID-19 projections report. Our goal is to provide timely, easy to understand public health briefs relevant to Arkansans.

Our forecasts and projections of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were developed using data from the Arkansas Department of Health through May 22.

Quick Facts:

  • The seven-day rolling average shows cases in Arkansas in March were 417, then dropped to 98 in April, and rose again this month to 210.
  • The relative change rates show an increase in cases (1.5%), hospitalizations (1.7%), and deaths (3.5%) over the past 90 days.
  • Forecasts for the next 30 days include a 1.9% increase in hospitalizations and 0.9% increase in deaths. Predictions for cases have been excluded due to the uncertainty in case counts.

Finally, we recommend Arkansas launch a program to describe the impact of Long COVID on the state and its citizens.

Download the full May 2022 COVID-19 Report

May COVID-19 reportDownload

COVID-19 Forecasts, Projections and Impact Assessments — April 2022

The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted four types of assessments for this month’s report: 1) a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective; 2) forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread; 3) forecast models of hospitalizations; and 4) forecast models of COVID-19 deaths.

All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through April 10.

Quick Facts from the Report are:

  • The 30-day models are forecasting 12,963 new cases by May 10. New daily cases are expected to average 432 per day.
  • The 30-day model forecasts 997 new COVID hospitalizations by May 10, averaging 33 per day.
  • The 30-day model is forecasting an average of 14 COVID-19 deaths per day for the next two weeks, adding 632 new deaths over the next 30 days, averaging 21 per day.

The models show the number of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths due to COVID-19 in the next 30 days, compared to one month ago, will continue to be flat.

Download the full April 2022 COVID-19 Report

April Covid-19 ReportDownload

COVID-19 Forecasts, Projections and Impact Assessments — March 2022

The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted four types of assessments for this month’s report: 1) a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective; 2) forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread; 3) forecast models of hospitalizations; and 4) forecast models of COVID-19 deaths.

All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through March 13.

Quick Facts from the Report are:

  • The models are forecasting 17,788 new cases by April 12. New daily cases are expected to average 593 per day.
  • The 30-day models continue to show Arkansans between ages 35 and 59 will have the highest number of COVID-19 diagnoses — forecast to increase by 5,577 cumulative cases by April 12.
  • The models forecast 1,393 new COVID hospitalizations by April 12, averaging 46 per day.
  • The 30-day model is forecasting an average of 14 COVID-19 deaths per day for the next two weeks, adding 661 new deaths over the next 30 days, averaging 22 per day.

The models show the number of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths due to COVID-19 in the next 30 days, compared to one month ago, will continue to be flat.

Download the full March 2022 COVID-19 Report

COVID-19 Forecasts, Projections and Impact Assessments — February 2022

Feb 2022 Covid Report

The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted four types of assessments for this month’s report: 1) a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective; 2) forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread; 3) forecast models of hospitalizations; and 4) forecast models of COVID-19 deaths.

All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through Feb. 13.

Summary points are:

  • The models are forecasting 32,979 new cases by March 15. New daily cases are expected to average 1,061 per day.
  • The 30-day models continue to show Arkansans between ages 35 and 59 will have the highest number of COVID-19 diagnoses — forecast to increase by 10,477 cumulative cases by March 15.
  • The models forecast 1,627 new COVID hospitalizations by March 15, averaging 51 per day.
  • The 30-day model is forecasting an average of 14 COVID-19 deaths per day for the next two weeks, adding 445 new deaths over the next 30 days.

The models are showing a fairly rapid decline in the number of new cases and hospitalizations in the next 30 days compared to one month ago. There is a slower decline in deaths, likely because deaths lag cases and hospitalizations. Models are based on past data, and do not account for increases or decreases since the data were downloaded on Feb. 14.

Download the full February 2022 COVID-19 Report

COVID-19 Issue Brief

The College of Public Health will publish periodic briefings designed to update the 15- and 30-day projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths between UAMS COPH COVID-19 Reports. Briefings will be published when cases, hospitalizations, or deaths are rapidly changing in times between the monthly reports.

Data used to prepare this briefing were downloaded Jan. 30 from the Arkansas Department of Health. The report text was finalized and released on Feb. 7, 2022.

Issue Brief #7: Feb. 7, 2022

COVID-19 Forecasts, Projections, and Impact Assessments – January 2022

Jan 2022 Covid Report

The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted four types of assessments for this month’s report:

  1. a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective;
  2. forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread;
  3. forecast models of hospitalizations; and
  4. forecast models of COVID-19 deaths. In this report, we are no longer reporting on immunizations in Arkansas. These data are available from other sources.

All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through Jan. 16.

Summary points are:

  • The models are forecasting an increase in new daily COVID-19 cases in the state — forecast to increase from 9,529 cases on Jan. 18 to 22,672 on Feb. 15.
  • The 30-day models continue to show Arkansans between ages 35 and 59 will have the highest number of COVID-19 diagnoses — forecast to increase by 150,731 cumulative cases by Feb. 15.
  • COVID-19 cases in children 17 and younger are forecast to increase nearly 89% by Feb. 15, adding 112,844 cumulative cases.
  • The model forecasts an increase in daily hospitalizations over the next 15 days, from 96 to 180 new admissions per day.
  • The 30-day model is forecasting an average of 12 COVID-19 deaths per day for the next two weeks.

The models are showing we should expect COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths to continue to increase through Feb. 15. Models are based on past data and do not account for increases or decreases since the data were pulled on Jan. 17. The Omicron surge is not over.

Download the full January 2022 COVID-19 Report

COVID-19 Issue Brief

The College of Public Health will publish periodic briefings designed to update the 15- and 30-day projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths between UAMS COPH COVID-19 Reports. Briefings will be published when cases, hospitalizations, or deaths are rapidly changing in times between the monthly reports.

Data used to prepare this briefing were downloaded Jan. 9 from the Arkansas Department of Health. The report text was finalized and released on Jan. 14, 2022.

Issue Brief #6:  Jan. 14, 2022Download

COVID-19 Issue Brief

The College of Public Health will publish periodic briefings designed to update the 15- and 30-day projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths between UAMS COPH COVID-19 Reports. Briefings will be published when cases, hospitalizations, or deaths are rapidly changing in times between the monthly reports.

Data used to prepare this briefing were downloaded Jan. 2 from the Arkansas Department of Health. The report text was finalized on Jan. 6, and it was posted and released today, Jan. 7, 2022.

Issue Brief #5:  Jan. 7, 2022Download

COVID-19 Forecasts, Projections, and Impact Assessments – December 2021

The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted five types of assessments for this monthly report: 1) a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective; 2) forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread; 3) forecast models of hospitalizations; 4) forecast model of COVID-19 deaths; and 5) status of COVID-19 vaccinations. All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through Dec. 12.

Summary points are:

  • The models are forecasting an increase in new daily COVID-19 cases in the state — forecast to increase from 766 cases on Dec. 14 to 815 on Dec. 27.
  • The 15-day models continue to show Arkansans between ages 35 and 59 will have the highest number of COVID-19 diagnoses — forecast to increase by 4,523 cumulative cases by Dec. 27.
  • The highest relative growth in COVID-19 cases will be in children 17 and younger — forecast to increase nearly 3% by Dec. 27, adding 2,673 cumulative cases.
  • The model forecasts an increase in daily hospitalizations over the next 15 days, from 39 to 46 new daily admissions.
  • The 15-day model is forecasting an average of five COVID-19 deaths per day for the next two weeks.
  • All counties in Arkansas continue to have low vaccination rates compared to the national average.

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UAMS COPH COVID Report DecemberDownload