The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted four types of assessments for this month’s report: 1) a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective; 2) forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread; 3) forecast models of hospitalizations; and 4) forecast models of COVID-19 deaths.

All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through April 10.

Quick Facts from the Report are:

• The 30-day models are forecasting 12,963 new cases by May 10. New daily cases are expected to average 432 per day.
• The 30-day model forecasts 997 new COVID hospitalizations by May 10, averaging 33 per day.
• The 30-day model is forecasting an average of 14 COVID-19 deaths per day for the next two weeks, adding 632 new deaths over the next 30 days, averaging 21 per day.

The models show the number of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths due to COVID-19 in the next 30 days, compared to one month ago, will continue to be flat.

Download the full April 2022 COVID-19 Report

The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted four types of assessments for this month’s report: 1) a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective; 2) forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread; 3) forecast models of hospitalizations; and 4) forecast models of COVID-19 deaths.

All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through March 13.

Quick Facts from the Report are:

• The models are forecasting 17,788 new cases by April 12. New daily cases are expected to average 593 per day.
• The 30-day models continue to show Arkansans between ages 35 and 59 will have the highest number of COVID-19 diagnoses — forecast to increase by 5,577 cumulative cases by April 12.
• The models forecast 1,393 new COVID hospitalizations by April 12, averaging 46 per day.
• The 30-day model is forecasting an average of 14 COVID-19 deaths per day for the next two weeks, adding 661 new deaths over the next 30 days, averaging 22 per day.

The models show the number of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths due to COVID-19 in the next 30 days, compared to one month ago, will continue to be flat.

Download the full March 2022 COVID-19 Report

Feb 2022 Covid Report

The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted four types of assessments for this month’s report: 1) a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective; 2) forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread; 3) forecast models of hospitalizations; and 4) forecast models of COVID-19 deaths.

All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through Feb. 13.

Summary points are:

• The models are forecasting 32,979 new cases by March 15. New daily cases are expected to average 1,061 per day.

• The 30-day models continue to show Arkansans between ages 35 and 59 will have the highest number of COVID-19 diagnoses — forecast to increase by 10,477 cumulative cases by March 15.

• The models forecast 1,627 new COVID hospitalizations by March 15, averaging 51 per day.

• The 30-day model is forecasting an average of 14 COVID-19 deaths per day for the next two weeks, adding 445 new deaths over the next 30 days.

The models are showing a fairly rapid decline in the number of new cases and hospitalizations in the next 30 days compared to one month ago. There is a slower decline in deaths, likely because deaths lag cases and hospitalizations. Models are based on past data, and do not account for increases or decreases since the data were downloaded on Feb. 14.

Download the full February 2022 COVID-19 Report

The College of Public Health will publish periodic briefings designed to update the 15- and 30-day projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths between UAMS COPH COVID-19 Reports. Briefings will be published when cases, hospitalizations, or deaths are rapidly changing in times between the monthly reports.

Data used to prepare this briefing were downloaded Jan. 30 from the Arkansas Department of Health. The report text was finalized and released on Feb. 7, 2022.

Issue Brief #7: Feb. 7, 2022

Jan 2022 Covid Report

The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted four types of assessments for this month’s report:

1. a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective;
2. forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread;
3. forecast models of hospitalizations; and
4. forecast models of COVID-19 deaths. In this report, we are no longer reporting on immunizations in Arkansas. These data are available from other sources.

All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through Jan. 16.

Summary points are:

• The models are forecasting an increase in new daily COVID-19 cases in the state — forecast to increase from 9,529 cases on Jan. 18 to 22,672 on Feb. 15.
• The 30-day models continue to show Arkansans between ages 35 and 59 will have the highest number of COVID-19 diagnoses — forecast to increase by 150,731 cumulative cases by Feb. 15.
• COVID-19 cases in children 17 and younger are forecast to increase nearly 89% by Feb. 15, adding 112,844 cumulative cases.
• The model forecasts an increase in daily hospitalizations over the next 15 days, from 96 to 180 new admissions per day.
• The 30-day model is forecasting an average of 12 COVID-19 deaths per day for the next two weeks.

The models are showing we should expect COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths to continue to increase through Feb. 15. Models are based on past data and do not account for increases or decreases since the data were pulled on Jan. 17. The Omicron surge is not over.

Download the full January 2022 COVID-19 Report

The College of Public Health will publish periodic briefings designed to update the 15- and 30-day projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths between UAMS COPH COVID-19 Reports. Briefings will be published when cases, hospitalizations, or deaths are rapidly changing in times between the monthly reports.

Data used to prepare this briefing were downloaded Jan. 9 from the Arkansas Department of Health. The report text was finalized and released on Jan. 14, 2022.

The College of Public Health will publish periodic briefings designed to update the 15- and 30-day projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths between UAMS COPH COVID-19 Reports. Briefings will be published when cases, hospitalizations, or deaths are rapidly changing in times between the monthly reports.

Data used to prepare this briefing were downloaded Jan. 2 from the Arkansas Department of Health. The report text was finalized on Jan. 6, and it was posted and released today, Jan. 7, 2022.

The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted five types of assessments for this monthly report: 1) a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective; 2) forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread; 3) forecast models of hospitalizations; 4) forecast model of COVID-19 deaths; and 5) status of COVID-19 vaccinations. All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through Dec. 12.

Summary points are:

• The models are forecasting an increase in new daily COVID-19 cases in the state — forecast to increase from 766 cases on Dec. 14 to 815 on Dec. 27.
• The 15-day models continue to show Arkansans between ages 35 and 59 will have the highest number of COVID-19 diagnoses — forecast to increase by 4,523 cumulative cases by Dec. 27.
• The highest relative growth in COVID-19 cases will be in children 17 and younger — forecast to increase nearly 3% by Dec. 27, adding 2,673 cumulative cases.
• The model forecasts an increase in daily hospitalizations over the next 15 days, from 39 to 46 new daily admissions.
• The 15-day model is forecasting an average of five COVID-19 deaths per day for the next two weeks.
• All counties in Arkansas continue to have low vaccination rates compared to the national average.

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The College of Public Health will publish periodic briefings designed to update the 15- and 30-day projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths between UAMS COPH COVID-19 Reports. Briefings will be published when cases, hospitalizations, or deaths are rapidly changing in times between the monthly reports.

Data used to prepare this briefing were downloaded Nov. 28 from the Arkansas Department of Health. The report text was finalized on Dec. 3, and it was posted and released today, Dec. 6.

NOV 2021 Covid Model Report

The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted five types of assessments for this monthly report: 1) a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective; 2) forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread; 3) forecast models of hospitalizations; 4) forecast model of COVID-19 deaths; and 5) status of COVID-19 vaccinations. All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through Nov. 7.

Summary points are:

• The models are forecasting a small growth in new daily COVID-19 cases in the state— forecast to increase from 430 cases on Nov. 9 to 546 on Nov. 22.
• The 15-day models continue to show Arkansans between ages 35 and 59 will have the highest number of COVID-19 diagnoses — forecast to increase by 2,433 cumulative cases by Nov. 22.
• The highest relative growth in COVID-19 cases will be in children 17 and younger — forecast to increase nearly 2.5% by Nov. 22.
• The model forecasts a slight decline in new hospitalizations over the next 15 days, dropping by one, from 18 to 17 new daily admissions.
• Hospitalizations are stabilizing; but, the greatest relative increase in hospitalizations will be in children 17 and younger, increasing by 5.3% by the end of November.
• The 15-day model is forecasting an average of three deaths per day for the next two weeks.
• The 15-day model is forecasting 8,612 cumulative COVID-19 deaths by Nov. 22.
• All counties in Arkansas continue to have low vaccination rates compared to national averages. Most counties increased vaccinations by 2% or less in the past month.