The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) COVID-19 Research Team has conducted forecasts, projections, and impact assessments, starting as weekly reports in March 2020. We slowly transitioned to monthly reports as the pandemic progressed. This month, we announce the transition to a new bi-monthly Public Health Brief. We present the current status on COVID-19 and long COVID-19 in this report. Subsequent reports will focus on other key public health issues in Arkansas, such as syphilis and Human papillomavirus (HPV). The new briefs will be in partnership with the Arkansas Department of Health, drawing on expert knowledge across a range of public health topics. We will continue to track the COVID-19 pandemic and present quick facts. If a new surge happens, we may produce a supplementary COVID-19 projections report. Our goal is to provide timely, easy to understand public health briefs relevant to Arkansans.
Our forecasts and projections of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were developed using data from the Arkansas Department of Health through May 22.
- The seven-day rolling average shows cases in Arkansas in March were 417, then dropped to 98 in April, and rose again this month to 210.
- The relative change rates show an increase in cases (1.5%), hospitalizations (1.7%), and deaths (3.5%) over the past 90 days.
- Forecasts for the next 30 days include a 1.9% increase in hospitalizations and 0.9% increase in deaths. Predictions for cases have been excluded due to the uncertainty in case counts.
Finally, we recommend Arkansas launch a program to describe the impact of Long COVID on the state and its citizens.