Oct 2021 Covid Modeling Report
The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted five types of assessments for this monthly report: 1) a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective; 2) forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread; 3) forecast models of hospitalizations; 4) forecast model of COVID-19 deaths; and 5) status of COVID-19 vaccinations. All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through Oct. 10.
Summary points are:
- The COVID-19 positivity rate in the state has declined below 10% and is only marginally above the national average.
- The models are forecasting a significant decline in new daily COVID-19 cases in the state — forecast to decrease from 464 cases on Oct. 12 to 50 on Oct. 25. However, we must caution the model reflects trends, and actual numbers may vary.
- The 15-day models continue to show Arkansans between ages 35 and 59 will have the highest number of COVID-19 diagnoses — forecast to increase by 2,744 cumulative cases by Oct. 25.
- The highest relative growth in COVID-19 cases will be in children 17 and younger — forecast to increase nearly 4% by Oct. 25.
- Like cases, the model forecasts a decline in new hospitalizations over the next 15 days, dropping from 27 to seven new daily admissions.
- Hospitalizations are stabilizing; but, the greatest relative increase in hospitalizations will be in children 17 and younger, increasing by 4% by the end of October.
- The 15-day model is forecasting an average of nearly seven deaths per day for the next two weeks.
- The 15-day model is forecasting 8,316 cumulative COVID-19 deaths by Oct. 25.
- All counties in Arkansas continue to have low vaccination rates. Most counties increased vaccinations by 2% to 3% in the past month.