The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted four types of assessments for this month’s report: 1) a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective; 2) forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread; 3) forecast models of hospitalizations; and 4) forecast models of COVID-19 deaths.
All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through Feb. 13.
Summary points are:
- The models are forecasting 32,979 new cases by March 15. New daily cases are expected to average 1,061 per day.
- The 30-day models continue to show Arkansans between ages 35 and 59 will have the highest number of COVID-19 diagnoses — forecast to increase by 10,477 cumulative cases by March 15.
- The models forecast 1,627 new COVID hospitalizations by March 15, averaging 51 per day.
- The 30-day model is forecasting an average of 14 COVID-19 deaths per day for the next two weeks, adding 445 new deaths over the next 30 days.
The models are showing a fairly rapid decline in the number of new cases and hospitalizations in the next 30 days compared to one month ago. There is a slower decline in deaths, likely because deaths lag cases and hospitalizations. Models are based on past data, and do not account for increases or decreases since the data were downloaded on Feb. 14.