The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted four types of assessments for this month’s report: 1) a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective; 2) forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread; 3) forecast models of hospitalizations; and 4) forecast models of COVID-19 deaths.
All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through March 13.
Quick Facts from the Report are:
- The models are forecasting 17,788 new cases by April 12. New daily cases are expected to average 593 per day.
- The 30-day models continue to show Arkansans between ages 35 and 59 will have the highest number of COVID-19 diagnoses — forecast to increase by 5,577 cumulative cases by April 12.
- The models forecast 1,393 new COVID hospitalizations by April 12, averaging 46 per day.
- The 30-day model is forecasting an average of 14 COVID-19 deaths per day for the next two weeks, adding 661 new deaths over the next 30 days, averaging 22 per day.
The models show the number of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths due to COVID-19 in the next 30 days, compared to one month ago, will continue to be flat.