NOV 2021 Covid Model Report
The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted five types of assessments for this monthly report: 1) a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective; 2) forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread; 3) forecast models of hospitalizations; 4) forecast model of COVID-19 deaths; and 5) status of COVID-19 vaccinations. All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through Nov. 7.
Summary points are:
- The models are forecasting a small growth in new daily COVID-19 cases in the state— forecast to increase from 430 cases on Nov. 9 to 546 on Nov. 22.
- The 15-day models continue to show Arkansans between ages 35 and 59 will have the highest number of COVID-19 diagnoses — forecast to increase by 2,433 cumulative cases by Nov. 22.
- The highest relative growth in COVID-19 cases will be in children 17 and younger — forecast to increase nearly 2.5% by Nov. 22.
- The model forecasts a slight decline in new hospitalizations over the next 15 days, dropping by one, from 18 to 17 new daily admissions.
- Hospitalizations are stabilizing; but, the greatest relative increase in hospitalizations will be in children 17 and younger, increasing by 5.3% by the end of November.
- The 15-day model is forecasting an average of three deaths per day for the next two weeks.
- The 15-day model is forecasting 8,612 cumulative COVID-19 deaths by Nov. 22.
- All counties in Arkansas continue to have low vaccination rates compared to national averages. Most counties increased vaccinations by 2% or less in the past month.