The College of Public Health will publish periodic briefings designed to update the 15- and 30-day projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths between UAMS COPH COVID-19 Reports. Briefings will be published when cases, hospitalizations, or deaths are rapidly changing in times between the monthly reports.

Data used to prepare this briefing were downloaded Nov. 28 from the Arkansas Department of Health. The report text was finalized on Dec. 3, and it was posted and released today, Dec. 6.

The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted five types of assessments for this monthly report: 1) a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective; 2) forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread; 3) forecast models of hospitalizations; 4) forecast model of COVID-19 deaths; and 5) status of COVID-19 vaccinations. All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through Nov. 7.

Summary points are:

• The models are forecasting a small growth in new daily COVID-19 cases in the state— forecast to increase from 430 cases on Nov. 9 to 546 on Nov. 22.
• The 15-day models continue to show Arkansans between ages 35 and 59 will have the highest number of COVID-19 diagnoses — forecast to increase by 2,433 cumulative cases by Nov. 22.
• The highest relative growth in COVID-19 cases will be in children 17 and younger — forecast to increase nearly 2.5% by Nov. 22.
• The model forecasts a slight decline in new hospitalizations over the next 15 days, dropping by one, from 18 to 17 new daily admissions.
• Hospitalizations are stabilizing; but, the greatest relative increase in hospitalizations will be in children 17 and younger, increasing by 5.3% by the end of November.
• The 15-day model is forecasting an average of three deaths per day for the next two weeks.
• The 15-day model is forecasting 8,612 cumulative COVID-19 deaths by Nov. 22.
• All counties in Arkansas continue to have low vaccination rates compared to national averages. Most counties increased vaccinations by 2% or less in the past month.

The College of Public Health will publish periodic briefings designed to update the 15- and 30-day projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths between UAMS COPH COVID-19 Reports. Briefings will be published when cases, hospitalizations, or deaths are rapidly changing in times between the monthly reports.

The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences’ (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health (COPH) faculty conducted five types of assessments for this monthly report: 1) a look at the pandemic in Arkansas from a longer-term perspective; 2) forecasts and projections of cases and maps of community spread; 3) forecast models of hospitalizations; 4) forecast model of COVID-19 deaths; and 5) status of COVID-19 vaccinations. All forecasts and projections were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through Oct. 10.

Summary points are:

• The COVID-19 positivity rate in the state has declined below 10% and is only marginally above the national average.
• The models are forecasting a significant decline in new daily COVID-19 cases in the state — forecast to decrease from 464 cases on Oct. 12 to 50 on Oct. 25. However, we must caution the model reflects trends, and actual numbers may vary.
• The 15-day models continue to show Arkansans between ages 35 and 59 will have the highest number of COVID-19 diagnoses — forecast to increase by 2,744 cumulative cases by Oct. 25.
• The highest relative growth in COVID-19 cases will be in children 17 and younger — forecast to increase nearly 4% by Oct. 25.
• Like cases, the model forecasts a decline in new hospitalizations over the next 15 days, dropping from 27 to seven new daily admissions.
• Hospitalizations are stabilizing; but, the greatest relative increase in hospitalizations will be in children 17 and younger, increasing by 4% by the end of October.
• The 15-day model is forecasting an average of nearly seven deaths per day for the next two weeks.
• The 15-day model is forecasting 8,316 cumulative COVID-19 deaths by Oct. 25.
• All counties in Arkansas continue to have low vaccination rates. Most counties increased vaccinations by 2% to 3% in the past month.

The College of Public Health will publish periodic briefings designed to update the 15- and 30-day projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths between UAMS COPH COVID-19 Reports. Briefings will be published when cases, hospitalizations, or deaths are rapidly changing in times between the monthly reports.

Sept. 27 – Oct. 26
The College of Public Health (COPH) publishes periodic briefings designed to update
COVID-19 forecasts and projects reported in the UAMS COPH COVID-19 Reports.
Data used to prepare this briefing are from the Arkansas Department of Health reported
throughs September 27, 2021.
Key Findings. COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are growing at a slower rate
than in July and August.

• The models are forecasting 6,145 new COVID-19 cases by Oct. 11 and 9,465 new cases by Oct. 26. New daily cases are expected to remain moderately high, averaging nearly 316 per day.
• The 7-day moving average of cases in Arkansas, as reported by USAFacts.org, is the same as it was on Dec. 31, 2020.
• We expect 834 new hospitalizations by Oct. 11 and 1,311 by Oct. 25. Daily hospitalizations are expected to average 45 per day.
• The average expected number of newly hospitalized individuals per day is 26. We estimate there will be a rapid decline in newly hospitalized individuals by the end of October. This is consistent with the trend that is beginning to emerge in the past week.
• The models are forecasting 361 new COVID-19 deaths by Oct. 11 and 533 new deaths in the next 30 days.
• We estimate 14 COVID-19 daily deaths per day across the next 30 days, decreasing by a third during that time.

As some will recall, we forecast Arkansas would cross the 7,000 COVID-19 deaths on
Aug. 31. The actual number of deaths on that date was 6,934. The models are forecasting the
state will cross the 8,000 deaths threshold around October 9th.

The current pandemic appears to on the downside of an exponential growth curve, and will
likely continue to decline until it finds a steady-state similar to April and May of 2021. The real
question now is: will the pandemic behave in a wave fashion with repeated surges and declines,
with each surge having a smaller crest or simply reach a low point and remain there.

The College of Public Health will publish periodic briefings designed to update the 15- and 30-day projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths between UAMS COPH COVID-19 Reports. Briefings will be published when cases, hospitalizations, or deaths are rapidly changing in times between the monthly reports.

UAMS Chancellor Cam Patterson and College of Public Health Dean Mark Williams give an update on the latest COVID-19 forecasts for Arkansas. Watch the video for the week ending June 6.

Read the full report:

https://publichealth.uams.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2021/06/UAMS-COPH-COVID-Report-June-2021-Final.pdf

For questions, contact Ashley McNatt, Communications Specialist for COPH, or the UAMS Office of Communications and Marketing.